Skiable Snow to make a return before Thanksgiving…

11-11-08 Veterans Day

Skiable Snow to make a return before Thanksgiving…

Please see the graphic. The most recent snows across the Green Mountains will likely fade and melt off except on north facing slopes in the longer shadows. But not to worry, as we will see some decent conditions begin to set up around the 17th and very likely continue perhaps unabated with a strong “lake effect” machine. Around the 17th high latitude blocking will have forced the jet stream to buckle into a trough of lower pressure aligned in the Great Lakes to Northeast U.S. This will create numerous “Alberta Clipper systems”, each bringing in their own shots of light to moderate snows across the most favorable areas in the Green Mountains and frequently onto General Stark Mountain and Mad River Glen. Couple this with lake effect off the warmer waters of Lake Ontario and Lake Huron’s Georgian Bay – and then include some local lake effect that can sometimes set up downwind from Lake Champlain and whammo! Early season lake effect snows can almost compete with a strong Nor’easter in November. This is due to the amazing energy transfer that can take place when colder air circulates over surface lake temperatures that are around 50 degrees F or 10 degrees C. Typically if this weather pattern bears out, we can expect easily 4 to 8 inches and possibly approaching a foot before Thanksgiving at Mad River Glen

This weather pattern may go back to one closer to seasonable conditions very late in the month. Many longer range forecasts are calling for a wild colder and snowy December!!! But we’ll have to see just how this early season evolves and this will depend on snow cover up to our northwest in Canada. Please see the graphic.

Roger Hill

Weathering Heights

Mildness lingers but for how long?

The hazy mild conditions of recent will only continue but we’ll be threading the needle so to speak with a narrow ridge of higher pressure presiding over us, supplying a stagnant hazy air mass. Mild conditions are continued with patchy mid and high cloudiness. Those clouds may at times thicken up while bands of rain showers rotating around low pressure system, work up the east coast occasionally approaching the northern Green Mountains. It’s a close call with any shower activity barely reaching the region. This weather system will be overcome by a migrating frontal system that will cross the Great Lakes this weekend. This leading edge of colder air, will pretty much end our most recent mild weather, and also trigger a better chance for rain showers on Saturday.

Eventually colder air flowing in off the Great Lakes will make for “mountain snow shower activity” Sunday and last into early next week. This unsettled weather beginning this weekend, is part of a larger scale weather pattern change, but only a first step along the way to much better potential Please see graphic. It might become much more important, as jet stream energy rounds the base of a large trough of low pressure and forces the formation of a southern storm system that could pass close enough to cause snow locally toward the middle part of next week. We are looking at a more unstable and potentially snowy weather pattern to emerge for the third week of November around the 17th to 19th time frame. This window though short could bring us something a lot more important.

Roger Hill

Weathering Heights

Snow Melt and Preservation...

The wet moisture laden snows may not all melt off by the end of next week but a warm up is expected between now and then. A Halloween cold front will bring enough colder air later this evening to fire some sprinkles first but then a glancing blow of relatively colder air to settle into place for Saturday. This will slow down the recent melt-off and preserve the snow as it will be some kind of chilly.

This next chilly air mass with the reinforcing shot of colder air on Saturday will eventually moderate over Sunday and Monday. An area of higher pressure will set the stage after the next shot of rain showers on Monday.

Tuesday Election day will begin a large reconfiguration on the jet stream which will have lasting effects the rest of the week. A large dip in the Jet stream out west will pump more ridging in the east, setting the stage for a southwesterly feed of milder air into the region and thus melting of snows on the slopes for much of next week.

As we get into next weekend around the 8th,9th and 10th, the polar vortex was forecast to weaken considerably and release VERY COLD AIR toward the middle latitudes. This should have ramifications with the jet stream pattern and migratory storms across northern New England in the favor of more snow, the big question at that point will be - does this colder air stay around, or does it progress again to another oscillation for warmer conditions?

Roger Hill

Weathering Heights

SNOW BEGINS TONIGHT & LINGERS THRU THURSDAY MORNING…

The best shot of late October snow so far is headed our way, as rain changes to snow and lowers down the mountain side tonight.

Low pressure expected to track northward up the Connecticut River producing a wide swath of rain, but, tonight the intensification process coupled with colder air swinging in on the back side of the storm system, should lower the snow level down to the valley floor before sunrise Wednesday. At that point, the best moisture fields will have moved north into Canada, but a strong west to northwesterly flow will set the stage for up-slope snows. As the cold moist air rams up against the Green Mountains, several inches of snow will fall overnight and continue into Wednesday.

Jay Peak - Due to the high water content I’m going for about 5” to 10” of new snow with the up-slope event. ***If the snow level lowers faster and colder air arrives earlier , we might see better than 10 inches on the upper 2/3rds of Jay Peak. The snow is likely to be very wet and heavy in nature, sticking to trees and signs and power lines. The wind velocities will be topping out around 45 mph later tonight and especially tomorrow producing rime icing and at times near blizzard conditions on the mountain with wind chills down to the single digits at times.

Mad River Glen – Up-sloping snows should deliver a solid 4” to 7” inches by early Thursday morning with the main gig happening late tonight tomorrow morning and secondary flare up Wednesday evening.

A weak area of higher pressure should work into the region with partial afternoon sunshine later in the day Thursday. At that time Jay Peak will be beautifully white.

Roger Hill

Weathering Heights

First Nor'easter of the year cuts a little close for comfort

SNOW IS DEFINITELY ON THE WAY!!

Accumulating amounts are still in question, but we at looking at the best shot of late October snow so far, and skiable snow on the mountain.

The jet stream buckling with a deepening trough of lower pressure and much colder air aloft and at the surface was taking place across the Great Lakes. In response, a warmer train of air across western Atlantic was organizing. This train of air will begin to gather plenty of moisture as it presses northward Tuesday pushing in rain.

Low pressure should track northward and a bit northwestward toward the Maine-New Hampshire border region and eventually near Sherbrook Quebec while intensifying. The intensification process will lower the snow level to a degree, but the arrival of colder air may wait until Tuesday evening. At that point the best moisture fields will have moved onward to the north into Canada.

So the WRAP-BACKLASH of moisture coupled with sharply falling temperatures are likely to be the main influence with UP-SLOPING snows and snow showers.

Right now I’m going for 3” to 6” with the up-slope event here in the Mad River Glen section of the Greens . ***If the snow level lowers faster and colder air arrives earlier , we might see better than 8 inches on the mountain, just slightly above base lodge level, but this remains to be seen just yet. The snow is likely to be very wet and heavy in nature, sticking to trees and signs and power lines. This also poses possible power outages with winds gusting 40 to 50 mph from the west and northwest.

Wednesday could turn out to be a ski day with a slow ramping down of snow showers and additional minor accumulation.
Roger Hill

Weathering Heights

Quick update Tuesday Night Snowfall

General Stark Mountain – I’m expecting roughly 1” to 3” at the top to perhaps lowest one third of the mountain and trace to an inch down to about 1500 feet elevation…not much below that. All of this by about 8 AM tomorrow morning.

Now, In a best case scenario we might get lucky crank out 2 to 4 at the top but that might be a wee bit of a stretch. Winds might be a bit brutal on the back side of the low pressure system later tonight out of the north and last into Wednesday and gusty to around 30 mph.

Will it be enough to take a few runs? Drooling? You decide? But have your rock skis.

Rain mixed with wet snow flakes is about all for the Mad River valley with a slush on some grassy surfaces. Higher pressure to build in for lots of sunshine and moderating temperatures later in the week with clear cold nights and bright sunny days Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures will eventually warm up a tad with clearing skies and higher pressure to build into the region later in the week.

I want to also let you know of some more “teaser” snow showers to hit the Green Mountains Sunday night into early next week. The season is young and its way early yet.

Roger Hill

Weathering Heights

Vermont's Green Mountains get first dusting...

Vermont Ski Weather conditions to evolve from Fall dust up's...and will be mostly in graphical forms for forecasts.

This was the first snow of the 2008-2009 season...looking west from Waitsfield on Friday Oct. 3rd...

Temp's to go above normal later in the week on back side of large area of higher pressure in the east.

The next potential dust up will be around the weekend of the 18th - 19th...