Monday, October 27, 2008

First Nor'easter of the year cuts a little close for comfort


Accumulating amounts are still in question, but we at looking at the best shot of late October snow so far, and skiable snow on the mountain.

The jet stream buckling with a deepening trough of lower pressure and much colder air aloft and at the surface was taking place across the Great Lakes. In response, a warmer train of air across western Atlantic was organizing. This train of air will begin to gather plenty of moisture as it presses northward Tuesday pushing in rain.

Low pressure should track northward and a bit northwestward toward the Maine-New Hampshire border region and eventually near Sherbrook Quebec while intensifying. The intensification process will lower the snow level to a degree, but the arrival of colder air may wait until Tuesday evening. At that point the best moisture fields will have moved onward to the north into Canada.

So the WRAP-BACKLASH of moisture coupled with sharply falling temperatures are likely to be the main influence with UP-SLOPING snows and snow showers.

Right now I’m going for 3” to 6” with the up-slope event here in the Mad River Glen section of the Greens . ***If the snow level lowers faster and colder air arrives earlier , we might see better than 8 inches on the mountain, just slightly above base lodge level, but this remains to be seen just yet. The snow is likely to be very wet and heavy in nature, sticking to trees and signs and power lines. This also poses possible power outages with winds gusting 40 to 50 mph from the west and northwest.

Wednesday could turn out to be a ski day with a slow ramping down of snow showers and additional minor accumulation.
Roger Hill

Weathering Heights

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