Monday, December 22, 2008




CHRISTMAS EVE STORM – This storm will be of mixed precipitation types with a few to possibly several inches of snow before going over to some rain Wednesday afternoon along with a thaw. The thaw will be short-lived as a cold front should change precipitation back to snow showers Christmas Eve, followed by an arctic front during the latter part of the Christmas morning. That means **if** a crust would develop due to this mixed precipitation on the mountain, it would have some additional follow up snow showers as colder air plows into the region but this looks limited. It’s a tough forecast but a preliminary cal of 2 to 5” on the front end followed by a periods of rain then another 1 to 2” inches on the back side.

Skies tend to partially clear out for Christmas afternoon, with some fantastic but cold weather for Friday.

SATURDAY: A storm system commonly called a “panhandle hook low” will develop near the Oklahoma Panhandle and truck northeastward into the central Great Lakes swinging a warm front into New England and southeast Canada. This pattern typically brings rain and freezing rain, but at this time appears not to be very substantial generally less than a third of an inch liquid, where most of the moisture will be well to our west, still we will likely see some liquid precip and a major thaw take place…possibly reaching into the low 50s, along with freezing levels rising into to about 5000 feet. This storm system pulls away into far northern Canada while swinging a cold front through, changing rain showers to snow showers Sunday morning followed by some sunny intervals.

Mid to Longer Range – Warmer than normal temperature levels, and less snow than normal appears to be in the offing between Christmas and New Years Day. Thereafter, colder weather returns for the first week of January, along with near normal snowfall.

Roger Hill

Weathering Heights

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Biggest snowfall of this season on it's way...lots of ice to our south and east...could be bad!


Biggest snowfall for the season on the way. It’s a Nor’easter that wants to track into New Hampshire while injecting some warmer air aloft and causing some sleet to mix in, and even an ice storm across portions of southern and far eastern Vermont and New Hampshire. Those areas will not see the kind of snow that should fall from 10 to 18” starting Thursday night and lasting into the most of the day before pulling away late Friday.

There no doubt about these storms having been the worst to forecast since I’ve been doing this in the 80s. The Computer weather modeling of the tracks have “shifty” causing the trends to keep pulling westward instead of staying on or a little off the coast. These storm become more of a hybrid and the closer they are to the region, the more the chance for precipitation other than just fine dendrites and stellar’s .

See storm track but also the blue area showing modeled precipitation. Freezing rain may get as far north as the far Northeastern Kingdom of VT, but I’m expecting it as far west as Mad River Glen.

As the storm departs, the weekend should be an outstanding one for enjoying about a foot of new powder with bright sunshine courtesy of higher pressure.

On Sunday, this high pressure system will bring us warmer air aloft as it exits to the east. The next system might again fall in the form of rain for a time, before changing back to all snow Monday night and Tuesday morning. High pressure builds across the region Tuesday night followed by another impulse with a brief shot of 2 to 5” of more snow for Wednesday. Colder air behind that system should be god for snow making conditions and also preserve the snow.

Bottom line around a foot of new powder with excellent conditions to play in the snow for the weekend.

Roger Hill

Weathering Heights