Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Rain and a crust did happen! but so did some decent snows...

To the left looks south down the spine of the central Green Mountains where some decent snow accrued just ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday...but there's a crust holding back the opening of Mad River Glen for example

More snow showers are likely Friday and again Monday to add more snow to the Greens.

Some very decent snows did fall across some parts of the region. You can see an example of the Pasumpsic River valley where Saint Johnsbury resides having little snow (light blue colors) last 24 hours. Other areas had snow then lower elevations lossed some of the snow, while areas kept it well...

Monday, November 24, 2008

Say it Ain't So! Snow to rain Monday night into Tuesday

11-24-08 FLASH

All eyes are on the making of a complex storm system later tonight and Tuesday.

The weather system has been evolving to one that will wrap in a fare amount of warm air with high winds Tuesday…changing snow to rain.

The good and the Bad – Snow will fall around midnight with about 3” to 6” before the lower two-thirds of the mountain begins to see some mixture in the morning Tuesday, before changing over to all rain late morning. Temperatures at base lodge may top out in the upper 30s late. The upper 1/4 of Stark Mountain will also mix with rain Tuesday afternoon, but there is a slight chance it could stay all snow, a very close call elevation dependent. Fingers crossed!!

This storm system is one that has evolved further to the west over the weekend and has gone from a snow with mixture in the middle to one mostly featuring rain New England wide.

Precipitation totals of three quarters of an inch melted, with about a third of that falling as rain during the day tomorrow, this will be better than other areas that will not fare as well with more rain indicated.

Of note -- High velocity winds will rake the Green mountains tomorrow at speeds greater than 60 Mph and will likely cause power outages - so be ware. As the storm heads north Wednesday it will leave us with partly sunny skies and temperatures that will be running close to seasonal normal’s.

Snow showers to return with light accumulation Thanksgiving Day lingering into the weekend. There is another weather system that might replicate itself for Saturday – stay tuned.

Roger Hill

Weathering Heights

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Snows to Accrue especially Thanksgiving Week next.


We continue on a track to accrue and build a base of snow with recent falls of natural snow, Temperatures will remain cold and “snow preservation” to remain excellent without any big warm ups.

About Monday the 24th, numerous light to moderate snowfalls should begin and continue through the work week – adding up to 6 to 10 with a 30% shot of a foot on top of General Stark Mountain. Low level moisture circulating and slamming into the mountain much as it has in recent days might not get a lot of attention, but a little each day as we all know on the Green Mountains adds up to a lot. One of the more interesting features can “Champlain Champaign” – this bubbly action courtesy of a cold northerly flow of air down the axis of Lake Champlain with a slight eastward tilt…bangs up against General Stark Mountain in a very localized Lake Effect machine and can unload a plenty --- while other areas miss out.

The weather pattern will also be favorable for the possibility of some big time jet stream energy cruising the Mid Atlantic and southeast coast. This can be exciting for the possibility of a Nor’easter hugging the coastline due to the blocking high pressure system south of Greenland continuing. We’ll keep a close eye out for this as well.

Roger Hill

Weathering Heights

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Skiable Snow to make a return before Thanksgiving…

11-11-08 Veterans Day

Skiable Snow to make a return before Thanksgiving…

Please see the graphic. The most recent snows across the Green Mountains will likely fade and melt off except on north facing slopes in the longer shadows. But not to worry, as we will see some decent conditions begin to set up around the 17th and very likely continue perhaps unabated with a strong “lake effect” machine. Around the 17th high latitude blocking will have forced the jet stream to buckle into a trough of lower pressure aligned in the Great Lakes to Northeast U.S. This will create numerous “Alberta Clipper systems”, each bringing in their own shots of light to moderate snows across the most favorable areas in the Green Mountains and frequently onto General Stark Mountain and Mad River Glen. Couple this with lake effect off the warmer waters of Lake Ontario and Lake Huron’s Georgian Bay – and then include some local lake effect that can sometimes set up downwind from Lake Champlain and whammo! Early season lake effect snows can almost compete with a strong Nor’easter in November. This is due to the amazing energy transfer that can take place when colder air circulates over surface lake temperatures that are around 50 degrees F or 10 degrees C. Typically if this weather pattern bears out, we can expect easily 4 to 8 inches and possibly approaching a foot before Thanksgiving at Mad River Glen

This weather pattern may go back to one closer to seasonable conditions very late in the month. Many longer range forecasts are calling for a wild colder and snowy December!!! But we’ll have to see just how this early season evolves and this will depend on snow cover up to our northwest in Canada. Please see the graphic.

Roger Hill

Weathering Heights

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Mildness lingers but for how long?

The hazy mild conditions of recent will only continue but we’ll be threading the needle so to speak with a narrow ridge of higher pressure presiding over us, supplying a stagnant hazy air mass. Mild conditions are continued with patchy mid and high cloudiness. Those clouds may at times thicken up while bands of rain showers rotating around low pressure system, work up the east coast occasionally approaching the northern Green Mountains. It’s a close call with any shower activity barely reaching the region. This weather system will be overcome by a migrating frontal system that will cross the Great Lakes this weekend. This leading edge of colder air, will pretty much end our most recent mild weather, and also trigger a better chance for rain showers on Saturday.

Eventually colder air flowing in off the Great Lakes will make for “mountain snow shower activity” Sunday and last into early next week. This unsettled weather beginning this weekend, is part of a larger scale weather pattern change, but only a first step along the way to much better potential Please see graphic. It might become much more important, as jet stream energy rounds the base of a large trough of low pressure and forces the formation of a southern storm system that could pass close enough to cause snow locally toward the middle part of next week. We are looking at a more unstable and potentially snowy weather pattern to emerge for the third week of November around the 17th to 19th time frame. This window though short could bring us something a lot more important.

Roger Hill

Weathering Heights