Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Skiable Snow to make a return before Thanksgiving…

11-11-08 Veterans Day

Skiable Snow to make a return before Thanksgiving…

Please see the graphic. The most recent snows across the Green Mountains will likely fade and melt off except on north facing slopes in the longer shadows. But not to worry, as we will see some decent conditions begin to set up around the 17th and very likely continue perhaps unabated with a strong “lake effect” machine. Around the 17th high latitude blocking will have forced the jet stream to buckle into a trough of lower pressure aligned in the Great Lakes to Northeast U.S. This will create numerous “Alberta Clipper systems”, each bringing in their own shots of light to moderate snows across the most favorable areas in the Green Mountains and frequently onto General Stark Mountain and Mad River Glen. Couple this with lake effect off the warmer waters of Lake Ontario and Lake Huron’s Georgian Bay – and then include some local lake effect that can sometimes set up downwind from Lake Champlain and whammo! Early season lake effect snows can almost compete with a strong Nor’easter in November. This is due to the amazing energy transfer that can take place when colder air circulates over surface lake temperatures that are around 50 degrees F or 10 degrees C. Typically if this weather pattern bears out, we can expect easily 4 to 8 inches and possibly approaching a foot before Thanksgiving at Mad River Glen

This weather pattern may go back to one closer to seasonable conditions very late in the month. Many longer range forecasts are calling for a wild colder and snowy December!!! But we’ll have to see just how this early season evolves and this will depend on snow cover up to our northwest in Canada. Please see the graphic.

Roger Hill

Weathering Heights

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