Monday, October 12, 2009

Skinning up the Mountain Tuesday...

Mid October snows will develop from lowering freezing/snow levels down the Green Mountain peaks...ending up around 1000-1500 feet elevation. This should allow for some wet snow accrual of about couple to 3" at places like Mad River Glen by Tuesday morning.

A little more snow could fall during the day and on the northern shady slopes some of that snow will hang out during this colder than normal week. Another important storm could form into a Nor'easter late in the week, but at this time fairly far out to sea with only fringe effects.

Roger Hill

Monday, December 22, 2008




CHRISTMAS EVE STORM – This storm will be of mixed precipitation types with a few to possibly several inches of snow before going over to some rain Wednesday afternoon along with a thaw. The thaw will be short-lived as a cold front should change precipitation back to snow showers Christmas Eve, followed by an arctic front during the latter part of the Christmas morning. That means **if** a crust would develop due to this mixed precipitation on the mountain, it would have some additional follow up snow showers as colder air plows into the region but this looks limited. It’s a tough forecast but a preliminary cal of 2 to 5” on the front end followed by a periods of rain then another 1 to 2” inches on the back side.

Skies tend to partially clear out for Christmas afternoon, with some fantastic but cold weather for Friday.

SATURDAY: A storm system commonly called a “panhandle hook low” will develop near the Oklahoma Panhandle and truck northeastward into the central Great Lakes swinging a warm front into New England and southeast Canada. This pattern typically brings rain and freezing rain, but at this time appears not to be very substantial generally less than a third of an inch liquid, where most of the moisture will be well to our west, still we will likely see some liquid precip and a major thaw take place…possibly reaching into the low 50s, along with freezing levels rising into to about 5000 feet. This storm system pulls away into far northern Canada while swinging a cold front through, changing rain showers to snow showers Sunday morning followed by some sunny intervals.

Mid to Longer Range – Warmer than normal temperature levels, and less snow than normal appears to be in the offing between Christmas and New Years Day. Thereafter, colder weather returns for the first week of January, along with near normal snowfall.

Roger Hill

Weathering Heights

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Biggest snowfall of this season on it's way...lots of ice to our south and east...could be bad!


Biggest snowfall for the season on the way. It’s a Nor’easter that wants to track into New Hampshire while injecting some warmer air aloft and causing some sleet to mix in, and even an ice storm across portions of southern and far eastern Vermont and New Hampshire. Those areas will not see the kind of snow that should fall from 10 to 18” starting Thursday night and lasting into the most of the day before pulling away late Friday.

There no doubt about these storms having been the worst to forecast since I’ve been doing this in the 80s. The Computer weather modeling of the tracks have “shifty” causing the trends to keep pulling westward instead of staying on or a little off the coast. These storm become more of a hybrid and the closer they are to the region, the more the chance for precipitation other than just fine dendrites and stellar’s .

See storm track but also the blue area showing modeled precipitation. Freezing rain may get as far north as the far Northeastern Kingdom of VT, but I’m expecting it as far west as Mad River Glen.

As the storm departs, the weekend should be an outstanding one for enjoying about a foot of new powder with bright sunshine courtesy of higher pressure.

On Sunday, this high pressure system will bring us warmer air aloft as it exits to the east. The next system might again fall in the form of rain for a time, before changing back to all snow Monday night and Tuesday morning. High pressure builds across the region Tuesday night followed by another impulse with a brief shot of 2 to 5” of more snow for Wednesday. Colder air behind that system should be god for snow making conditions and also preserve the snow.

Bottom line around a foot of new powder with excellent conditions to play in the snow for the weekend.

Roger Hill

Weathering Heights

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Rain and a crust did happen! but so did some decent snows...

To the left looks south down the spine of the central Green Mountains where some decent snow accrued just ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday...but there's a crust holding back the opening of Mad River Glen for example

More snow showers are likely Friday and again Monday to add more snow to the Greens.

Some very decent snows did fall across some parts of the region. You can see an example of the Pasumpsic River valley where Saint Johnsbury resides having little snow (light blue colors) last 24 hours. Other areas had snow then lower elevations lossed some of the snow, while areas kept it well...

Monday, November 24, 2008

Say it Ain't So! Snow to rain Monday night into Tuesday

11-24-08 FLASH

All eyes are on the making of a complex storm system later tonight and Tuesday.

The weather system has been evolving to one that will wrap in a fare amount of warm air with high winds Tuesday…changing snow to rain.

The good and the Bad – Snow will fall around midnight with about 3” to 6” before the lower two-thirds of the mountain begins to see some mixture in the morning Tuesday, before changing over to all rain late morning. Temperatures at base lodge may top out in the upper 30s late. The upper 1/4 of Stark Mountain will also mix with rain Tuesday afternoon, but there is a slight chance it could stay all snow, a very close call elevation dependent. Fingers crossed!!

This storm system is one that has evolved further to the west over the weekend and has gone from a snow with mixture in the middle to one mostly featuring rain New England wide.

Precipitation totals of three quarters of an inch melted, with about a third of that falling as rain during the day tomorrow, this will be better than other areas that will not fare as well with more rain indicated.

Of note -- High velocity winds will rake the Green mountains tomorrow at speeds greater than 60 Mph and will likely cause power outages - so be ware. As the storm heads north Wednesday it will leave us with partly sunny skies and temperatures that will be running close to seasonal normal’s.

Snow showers to return with light accumulation Thanksgiving Day lingering into the weekend. There is another weather system that might replicate itself for Saturday – stay tuned.

Roger Hill

Weathering Heights

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Snows to Accrue especially Thanksgiving Week next.


We continue on a track to accrue and build a base of snow with recent falls of natural snow, Temperatures will remain cold and “snow preservation” to remain excellent without any big warm ups.

About Monday the 24th, numerous light to moderate snowfalls should begin and continue through the work week – adding up to 6 to 10 with a 30% shot of a foot on top of General Stark Mountain. Low level moisture circulating and slamming into the mountain much as it has in recent days might not get a lot of attention, but a little each day as we all know on the Green Mountains adds up to a lot. One of the more interesting features can “Champlain Champaign” – this bubbly action courtesy of a cold northerly flow of air down the axis of Lake Champlain with a slight eastward tilt…bangs up against General Stark Mountain in a very localized Lake Effect machine and can unload a plenty --- while other areas miss out.

The weather pattern will also be favorable for the possibility of some big time jet stream energy cruising the Mid Atlantic and southeast coast. This can be exciting for the possibility of a Nor’easter hugging the coastline due to the blocking high pressure system south of Greenland continuing. We’ll keep a close eye out for this as well.

Roger Hill

Weathering Heights