Friday, October 31, 2008

Snow Melt and Preservation...

The wet moisture laden snows may not all melt off by the end of next week but a warm up is expected between now and then. A Halloween cold front will bring enough colder air later this evening to fire some sprinkles first but then a glancing blow of relatively colder air to settle into place for Saturday. This will slow down the recent melt-off and preserve the snow as it will be some kind of chilly.

This next chilly air mass with the reinforcing shot of colder air on Saturday will eventually moderate over Sunday and Monday. An area of higher pressure will set the stage after the next shot of rain showers on Monday.

Tuesday Election day will begin a large reconfiguration on the jet stream which will have lasting effects the rest of the week. A large dip in the Jet stream out west will pump more ridging in the east, setting the stage for a southwesterly feed of milder air into the region and thus melting of snows on the slopes for much of next week.

As we get into next weekend around the 8th,9th and 10th, the polar vortex was forecast to weaken considerably and release VERY COLD AIR toward the middle latitudes. This should have ramifications with the jet stream pattern and migratory storms across northern New England in the favor of more snow, the big question at that point will be - does this colder air stay around, or does it progress again to another oscillation for warmer conditions?

Roger Hill

Weathering Heights

Tuesday, October 28, 2008


The best shot of late October snow so far is headed our way, as rain changes to snow and lowers down the mountain side tonight.

Low pressure expected to track northward up the Connecticut River producing a wide swath of rain, but, tonight the intensification process coupled with colder air swinging in on the back side of the storm system, should lower the snow level down to the valley floor before sunrise Wednesday. At that point, the best moisture fields will have moved north into Canada, but a strong west to northwesterly flow will set the stage for up-slope snows. As the cold moist air rams up against the Green Mountains, several inches of snow will fall overnight and continue into Wednesday.

Jay Peak - Due to the high water content I’m going for about 5” to 10” of new snow with the up-slope event. ***If the snow level lowers faster and colder air arrives earlier , we might see better than 10 inches on the upper 2/3rds of Jay Peak. The snow is likely to be very wet and heavy in nature, sticking to trees and signs and power lines. The wind velocities will be topping out around 45 mph later tonight and especially tomorrow producing rime icing and at times near blizzard conditions on the mountain with wind chills down to the single digits at times.

Mad River Glen – Up-sloping snows should deliver a solid 4” to 7” inches by early Thursday morning with the main gig happening late tonight tomorrow morning and secondary flare up Wednesday evening.

A weak area of higher pressure should work into the region with partial afternoon sunshine later in the day Thursday. At that time Jay Peak will be beautifully white.

Roger Hill

Weathering Heights

Monday, October 27, 2008

First Nor'easter of the year cuts a little close for comfort


Accumulating amounts are still in question, but we at looking at the best shot of late October snow so far, and skiable snow on the mountain.

The jet stream buckling with a deepening trough of lower pressure and much colder air aloft and at the surface was taking place across the Great Lakes. In response, a warmer train of air across western Atlantic was organizing. This train of air will begin to gather plenty of moisture as it presses northward Tuesday pushing in rain.

Low pressure should track northward and a bit northwestward toward the Maine-New Hampshire border region and eventually near Sherbrook Quebec while intensifying. The intensification process will lower the snow level to a degree, but the arrival of colder air may wait until Tuesday evening. At that point the best moisture fields will have moved onward to the north into Canada.

So the WRAP-BACKLASH of moisture coupled with sharply falling temperatures are likely to be the main influence with UP-SLOPING snows and snow showers.

Right now I’m going for 3” to 6” with the up-slope event here in the Mad River Glen section of the Greens . ***If the snow level lowers faster and colder air arrives earlier , we might see better than 8 inches on the mountain, just slightly above base lodge level, but this remains to be seen just yet. The snow is likely to be very wet and heavy in nature, sticking to trees and signs and power lines. This also poses possible power outages with winds gusting 40 to 50 mph from the west and northwest.

Wednesday could turn out to be a ski day with a slow ramping down of snow showers and additional minor accumulation.
Roger Hill

Weathering Heights

Friday, October 24, 2008

Gusty winds Saturday night - Colder mid next week?

A pretty good blow of strong gusty winds from the southeast will likely make itself felt across the Green Mountains Saturday afternoon and evening just about the time a shot of moderate to heavy showers works through the region...

These winds might be strong enough to take down a few tree limbs an cuase scattered power outages...

To the right please click on the graphic to view what we might expect down the road. One particular model has been toning down but nevertheles holds on to a possible coastal system throw plenty of snow back into the region next week.

I'm not ready to sign off on it but will keep a careful watch.

Roger Hill -Weathering Heights

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Quick update Tuesday Night Snowfall

General Stark Mountain – I’m expecting roughly 1” to 3” at the top to perhaps lowest one third of the mountain and trace to an inch down to about 1500 feet elevation…not much below that. All of this by about 8 AM tomorrow morning.

Now, In a best case scenario we might get lucky crank out 2 to 4 at the top but that might be a wee bit of a stretch. Winds might be a bit brutal on the back side of the low pressure system later tonight out of the north and last into Wednesday and gusty to around 30 mph.

Will it be enough to take a few runs? Drooling? You decide? But have your rock skis.

Rain mixed with wet snow flakes is about all for the Mad River valley with a slush on some grassy surfaces. Higher pressure to build in for lots of sunshine and moderating temperatures later in the week with clear cold nights and bright sunny days Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures will eventually warm up a tad with clearing skies and higher pressure to build into the region later in the week.

I want to also let you know of some more “teaser” snow showers to hit the Green Mountains Sunday night into early next week. The season is young and its way early yet.

Roger Hill

Weathering Heights

Friday, October 17, 2008

Mid October snow on the way?

The graphic should say it all. It is a pretty interesting time of year. Though the "pretty" part is probably peaked.
It is also a time whebn computer modeling in the northern and southern hemisphere began to take a dive in accuracy. This is in part due to the strongly driven jet stream with higher amplitude troughs or dips and ridges where systems cut off amplify out. Blocking patterns can emerge and modeling though amazing in it's accuracy can be thrown some large curve balls. Curve balls routinely bust forecasts.

Monday, October 6, 2008

Vermont's Green Mountains get first dusting...

Vermont Ski Weather conditions to evolve from Fall dust up's...and will be mostly in graphical forms for forecasts.
This was the first snow of the 2008-2009 season...looking west from Waitsfield on Friday Oct. 3rd...
Temp's to go above normal later in the week on back side of large area of higher pressure in the east.
The next potential dust up will be around the weekend of the 18th - 19th...